While Perth is experiencing one of its wettest Julys on record, the southwest WA region has historically been weakly influenced by negative IODs. ItвЂ™s too early to tell, but most likely not. (2020) Is the negative IOD behind the recent wet weather? The number of Indian Ocean Dipole events (per 30 years) based on climate models. Thankfully, current forecasts indicate the negative IOD will be a little milder this time, so we hopefully wonвЂ™t see any devastating events. The 2016 event was also linked to devastating drought in East Africa on the other side of the Indian Ocean, and heavy rainfall in Indonesia. It resulted in AustraliaвЂ™s second wettest winter on record and flooding in parts of NSW, Victoria, and South Australia.

This is the first official negative IOD event since 2016, a year that saw one of the strongest negative IOD events on record. However, the warming trend from human-caused climate change means this signal isnвЂ™t as clear as it was in the past.ДЄ negative IOD may mean a better snow season in the High Country. Negative IOD years can also bring better snow seasons for Australians. In fact, negative IOD events are so important for Australia that their absence for prolonged periods has been blamed for historical multi-year droughts in the past century over southeast Australia. While the prospect of even more rain might dampen some spirits, there are reasons to be happy about this.ДЇirst of all, winter rainfall is typically good for farmers growing crops such as grain, and previous negative IOD years have come with record-breaking crop production. Rainfall outlooks for AugustвЂ“October suggest that large parts of Australia will likely experience above-median rainfall. But just because weвЂ™re more likely to have a wetter few months doesnвЂ™t mean we necessarily will - every negative IOD event is different. In southern Australia, a negative IOD also means weвЂ™re more likely to get cooler daytime temperatures and warmer nights. Indeed, the seasonal outlook indicates above average rainfall for much of the country in the next three months. The negative IOD means the southern regions of Australia are likely to have a wet winter and spring. We probably have a wet few months ahead of us. Bureau of Meteorology Why should we care? The negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Generally, IOD events start in late autumn or winter, and can last until the end of spring - abruptly ending with the onset of the northern Australian monsoon.

This includes parts of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, NSW and the ACT. This causes more moisture-filled air to flow towards Australia, favouring wind pattern changes in a way that promotes more rainfall to southern parts of Australia. Read more: Explainer: El NiГ±o and La NiГ±a The IOD is determined by the differences in sea surface temperature on either side of the Indian Ocean.Дuring a negative phase, waters in the eastern Indian Ocean (near Indonesia) are warmer than normal, and the western Indian Ocean (near Africa) are cooler than normal. An event occurs after the index crosses the threshold for 8 weeks. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index, used to track the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Negative IODs tend to be less frequent and not as strong as positive IOD events, but can still bring severe climate conditions, such as heavy rainfall and flooding, to parts of Australia. The devastating Black Summer bushfires in 2019вЂ“20 were linked to an extreme positive IOD, as well as human-caused climate change which exacerbated these conditions. Positive IODs are associated with an increased chance for dry weather in southern and southeast Australia.

The IOD has the same impact through its positive and negative phases, respectively.

Essentially, for most of Australia, El NiГ±o brings dry weather, while La NiГ±a brings wet weather. It can be thought of as the Indian OceanвЂ™s cousin of the better known El NiГ±o and La NiГ±a in the Pacific. ItвЂ™s brought about by the interactions between the currents along the sea surface and atmospheric circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is a natural climate phenomenon that influences rainfall patterns around the Indian Ocean, including Australia. Overseas, parts of Europe and China have endured extensive flooding, with hundreds of lives lost and hundreds of thousands of people evacuated.ДЄnd last week, AustraliaвЂ™s Bureau of Meteorology officially declared there is a negative Indian Ocean Dipole - the first negative event in five years - known for bringing wet weather.Д«ut what even is the Indian Ocean Dipole, and does it matter? Is it to blame for these events? What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? Perth recorded its wettest July in decades, with 18 straight days of relentless rain. This month weвЂ™ve seen some crazy, devastating weather.

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